After the Oscar nominations are announced each year, the most fascinating topic is who will be the final winner. The media, prediction agencies, and numerous movie fans all have their favorites and eagerly await the moment when the envelope is opened.
If the audience is interested enough, they can even participate in online predictions and lotteries on the official Oscar website. If luck and the winner of the Oscar match up, the grand prize for them will be a 37-inch plasma wall-mounted TV provided by Sony.
So how can one predict accurately? Of course, it's essential to listen to the experts. On the day of the Oscars, various media outlets are filled with predictions, but the predictions for the main awards are strikingly similar—Best Picture and Best Director are expected to go to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and its director Duke Rosenberg; Best Actor and Best Actress will likely go to Sean Penn and Charlize Theron, both of whom have already won numerous awards during the season; and the Best Supporting Actor and Actress awards are predicted to go to Tim Robbins and Renée Zellweger.
Some media outlets even claim this will be the most predictable Oscar ceremony ever, with the lack of suspense making the competition somewhat boring.
But not everyone agrees, such as Roger Ebert.
As per ABC TV's live broadcast tradition, Roger Ebert always appears on the pre-Oscar live show Oscar Night: Guests Arrive.
"This is ABC TV, and the highly anticipated 76th Academy Awards ceremony is about to begin."
In the studio of ABC TV in Burbank, hosts Loupe and Roger Ebert are sitting in front of the live camera, commenting on the upcoming awards ceremony. "I'm Loupe, and it's my great honor to accompany you through another unforgettable night, as always. We've invited the famous film critic Roger Ebert to join us today…"
After chatting casually for a bit, the topic shifts to the most anticipated part of the show: predictions.
"Roger, in the past few days, all the major media outlets have given their predictions, and the results are mostly the same. The media generally believe that this will be an Oscar ceremony without suspense. What's your opinion?"
"I agree with the media on the acting awards," Roger Ebert replied in his usual elegant manner. "But Best Picture and Best Director, I don't think will go to The Return of the King and Duke Rosenberg."
"Why is that?" Loupe asked.
"It's simple. Purely commercial films winning the major Oscar awards hasn't happened in nearly ten years."
Roger Ebert spoke in an authoritative tone. "And Titanic was based on a true event, which is why no film with a non-realistic premise has ever won Best Director or Best Picture in Oscar history…"
At this point, his teeth seemed to clench as he tried his best to maintain composure. "It hasn't happened in the past, it's not happening now, and it won't happen for a long time!"
He, along with most well-known film critics, had worked hard during the award season. Though he felt a little uneasy, he still firmly believed that a repeat of Saving Private Ryan's treatment at the Oscars was imminent!
Even if The Return of the King wins Best Picture, they must stop Duke Rosenberg from winning Best Director!
In Roger Ebert's eyes, this was a war, and the battle had already begun!
The Academy Awards has nearly six thousand members. The final voting results cannot be swayed by personal will. At this point, only two people know the results—the partners from PricewaterhouseCoopers, Grigo Garrison and Rick Rosas.
They left the Los Angeles office of PricewaterhouseCoopers separately, traveling from different directions and roads to the Kodak Theatre. Each carried a copy of the final results, to prevent the award list from arriving late due to traffic or other unexpected incidents.
However, this year's Academy Awards ceremony is different. Grigo Garrison and Rick Rosas are surrounded by increased security.
The night before the ceremony, the CIA received intelligence that this year's Oscars had become a target for Al-Qaeda attacks. After the 9/11 attacks, no amount of security could be considered excessive for an event as significant as the Oscars.
The Oscars are Hollywood's grand celebration, and even with the threat of terrorism, the ceremony would go on as usual, because this Hollywood extravaganza is always built with thick layers of American dollars.
Days before the ceremony, the giant golden statue was already in place outside the Kodak Theatre. Once the iconic Oscar statue was set up, the construction of the red carpet area proceeded. The 600-foot-long red carpet is a key venue for stars to display their charm.
At the start of the red carpet, a large tent of about 500 square feet was erected. Stars and guests attending the ceremony would pause here before walking the red carpet into the Kodak Theatre. The media's photo areas beside the carpet were also vast, and since February is Los Angeles's rainy season, the organizers had thoughtfully designed roofs for all the observation and photo areas.
By noon, helicopters were circling above Hollywood, and barricades were set up on the streets. Security around the Kodak Theatre was maximized with both technical and human resources.
To ensure order, surveillance cameras and metal detectors were placed in every corner, and each officer had a watchful eye. Even the fans sitting in the open-air stands to watch the stars' entrances on the star-studded avenue were under tight observation.
This year's Oscar broadcast has also sparked controversy. Due to the incident at the 38th Super Bowl halftime show, where Justin Timberlake and Janet Jackson caused a scandal, ABC TV had to implement a five-second delay on the live broadcast to ensure no inappropriate content went live.
After 3 PM, Duke and Ivanka arrived at the intersection of Hollywood Boulevard and Highland Avenue. They entered the large tent under the guidance of a staff member, where over a hundred stars and socialites were already waiting for the red carpet ceremony to begin.
"Hi, Duke. Hi, Ivy."
Duke had just picked a quiet spot when someone walked over to greet them. Charlize Theron, dressed in a silver-white fishtail evening gown, waved enthusiastically at them.
"Hello, Sally." Duke nodded at her.
Ivanka extended her hand for a brief handshake with a polite smile, saying, "Congratulations, Sally."
"Results aren't out yet…"
Sally casually responded and then turned her gaze to Duke, either intentionally or unintentionally saying, "Thank you for your advice, Duke."
At that moment, without bothering to acknowledge Ivanka who stood beside him, she leaned towards Duke's ear and, although her voice was lowered, said mysteriously (but in a tone Ivanka could hear), "How should I thank you?"
Duke could feel Ivanka's grip on his arm tighten slightly as she leaned back, pulling away from Sally. He finally replied, "I haven't done anything. It's your choice, Sally."
"You're right, Duke…"
At that moment, another blonde woman approached and greeted, "This is Charlize's lucky year."
Naomi Watts, after speaking, pulled her companion closer and introduced him, "Duke, Ivy, Charlize, this is Heath Ledger, an actor from Australia like me."
"Hello, Director Rosenberg."
The actor, now considered a minor player, extended his hand. Duke gave him a nod and shook his hand gently.
The three women continued their conversation, with an undercurrent of rivalry between them. Duke didn't mind, as Naomi Watts and Charlize Theron were both things of the past.
What Duke didn't expect was that there were many women here who had rumors with him, such as Cameron Diaz, Cate Blanchett, Sienna Miller, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Alessandra Ambrosio, and so on.
The most important thing was that these people all came up to greet him warmly, and Duke could see Ivanka's eyes showing some displeasure.
Ivanka was indeed not happy. Hearing about these women and witnessing their interactions with him, she could confirm that the gossip about him was true.
Especially since these women greeted him with a tone that only other women could interpret, it made her have some unwarranted thoughts.
But Duke wasn't feeling guilty. He wasn't exactly a good man, but since he officially started dating Ivanka, he hadn't done anything out of line and had cut ties with his previous chaotic private life.
Duke chatted with Heath Ledger for a while. There was a high likelihood of future collaboration, and Duke saw him as the perfect candidate to play the Joker.
Of course, he wasn't foolish enough to offer advice, as in Hollywood, the road you take is always your own choice.
The red carpet soon began, with stars steadily walking towards the Kodak Theatre. As one of the favorites for the award, Duke and his group walked toward the carpet later, so there was no rush.
Moreover, the red carpet was a time for the female stars. Even the 13-year-old lead actress of Whale Rider, Keisha, was met with louder cheers from the fans than any of the stars.
From her, one could also see the Oscars' political nature. This young actress had performed excellently, but did she truly deserve an Oscar nomination for Best Actress more than others? And now, the United States needed full support from English-speaking allies for its actions in Iraq and Afghanistan!
As usual, Duke walked the red carpet with Ivanka. He waved at the media section, then strolled at a normal pace through the red carpet, briefly chatted with the reporters, and entered the Kodak Theatre. After joining Tina Fey and her mother, they quickly found their seats, sat down, and waited for the ceremony to begin.
This was the designated seating area for The Return of the King. Apart from Duke and a few members of the production team, the actors hadn't yet arrived, as they needed the exposure more than the director.
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